Tomorrow sees the first televised leadership debate between Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and I’m going out on a limb right now to predict a hung parliament.
It’s actually madness.
Gordon Brown won’t do himself any favours at all. He did well on Piers Morgan’s show because he prepared a lot, rehearsed a lot and kept it very light and tight. He knows Piers well and I thought Piers was very kind in the way he managed the show – they both came out of it looking good, and we saw a different side to them both. But in a podium debate, Brown’s best hope will be to appear statesmanlike next to two rookies, and I doubt he’ll be able to pull that off effectively. He’s too tired and feels too hard done by. His best hope is to be tight on detail while the other two gloss on ideology… but I really think Brown is shooting himself by agreeing to do this at all.
David Cameron has everything to lose. He’s already thought to be slick at presentation and people will have very high expectations of him going into the debate. If he delivers, he’ll seem shallow. If he doesn’t, he’ll seem weak. The only way he can win is to renew his newness, and I doubt he can do that because…
Nick Clegg is in the best position and could do really well. I’ll be upfront: I think Clegg is a wanker. He has about as much substance as my rumbling tummy right now. But he’s in a good position because this election will be about change. The Tories had their turn in the 80s and 90s, and then we voted for change. Now Labour has had a good run too, and we want change again. We crave newness in this country. And that will be the thrust of Clegg’s pitch tomorrow night; it’s time for a new kind of politics, where you – yes, you – get to be part of it. It’s perfect for the format. He’ll energise young people, connect with the disaffected and politically naive – and my guess is he’ll end up in a coalition government.
But it’s not too late. Cameron and Brown will both lose support if they go ahead with this mad idea and plenty of people will be telling them that today. Either of them could have pulled out by tomorrow and the whole thing will be scuppered. It’ll look bad in the short term of course, but ultimately it might save their career… especially in Brown’s case.
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